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5. CROW’S INDICES OF DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN RUSSIA’S TWO LARGEST CITIES: INTERETHNIC VARIATION AND SECULAR TRENDS

CROW’S INDICES OF DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN RUSSIA’S TWO LARGEST CITIES: INTERETHNIC VARIATION AND SECULAR TRENDS

Kurbatova Olga, Pobedonostseva Elena

Vavilov Institute of General Genetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Kurbatova Olga, e-mail: okurbat@list.ru.

Аннотация

Using Russia’s 2002 census data, population replacement parameters and Crow’s indices of the opportunity for selection have been analyzed in Moscow and St.-Petersburg in 7 cohorts of females with completed fertility (years of birth from the early 20th century till 1962). During the whole time period, average number of births per female (kav) in 5 ethnic groups under study (Russians, Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Tatars and Jews) was less than 2, that is not enough even for simple population replacement. In female 1953–1957 birth cohort kav varies from 1.33 (Jews) to 1.61 (Tatars). Proportion of infertile females (having no births) in two megalopolises is considerably larger (up to 20% in the senior age cohorts) than in populations with traditional culture. Selection component due to differential fertility (If ) was high in female cohorts born before the 2nd World War, and later kept stable at 0.3–0.4, mostly due to relative stabilization of interfamily variation in fertility (family planning and birth control, predominantly by means of medical abortions). Component due to differential prereproductive mortality, Im, has shown a 50-fold decrease during the 20th century as a result of social progress and improvements in medical care, and nowadays attained negligible values (<0.03). It means that in these urban populations process of selection relaxation, with respect to both components – If and Im, has been almost completed. An important predictable consequence of selection relaxation is an increase of population genetic load, which implies further development of genetic counseling. Intensity of intergroup selection (based on interethnic variation in birth rates within each megalopolis), is many times lower than that of intragroup selection (interfamily variation), and also tends to decrease, presumably, as a result of demographic transition – changes of migrant’s reproductive behaviour in urban environment. Judging by 1926 census data, at that time interethnic differentials in vital statistics in Moscow were much more significant than now, and almost all ethnic groups demonstrated a positive natural increase.

Ключевые слова

Crow’s indices, fertility, mortality, selection relaxation, urban populations, interethnic differentials

Цит.: Kurbatova Olga, Pobedonostseva Elena CROW’S INDICES OF DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN RUSSIA’S TWO LARGEST CITIES: INTERETHNIC VARIATION AND SECULAR TRENDS // Вестник Московского университета. Серия XXIII. Антропология, 2014; 3/2014; с. 98-99