1. Home
2. Archive
3. 2021
4. 3/2021
5. The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

Budilova E.V. (1), Lagutin M.B. (2)

1) Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Biology, Department of Plant Ecology and Geography, Leninskie Gory, 1, 12, Moscow, 119234, Russia; 2) Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics, Leninskie Gory, 1, Moscow, 119234, Russia

Budilova Elena V., PhD, DSc; ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0769-4570; evbudilova@mail.ru; Lagutin Michail B.; ORCID ID: 0000-0003-3778-4497; lagutinmb@mail.ru

Abstract

Introduction. The relationship between the total fertility and mortality rates, as well as the birth-death ratio and aging index with environmental factors in 174 cities of Russia is considered. Materials and methods. The source of information on fertility and mortality was Russian Federal State Statistics Service data on 174 cities of the Russian Federation with a population of more than 100 thousand people for 2014-2016. The birth-death rate was calculated as the ratio of the total fertility rate to the total mortality rate. Aging index - as the ratio of the proportion of the population older than the working age to the proportion of the population younger than the working age, multiplied by 100. The sources of information on environmental factors were the Yearbooks of the state of air pollution in cities in Russia for the same period. The relationship between demographic health indicators and environmental factors was investigated using the method of correlation analysis. A nonparametric analysis of variance was used to compare cities with different levels of pollution in terms of fertility, mortality, birth-death and aging index. Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

Keywords

fertility; mortality; birth-death ratio; aging index; air pollution; life history evolution

DOI: 10.32521/2074-8132.2021.3.059-071

Цит.: Budilova E.V., Lagutin M.B. The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities // Moscow University Anthropology Bulletin (Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria XXIII. Antropologia), 2021; 3/2021; с. 59-71 (Published: September 14, 2021)